Should Windows Be on a 3-Year Development Cycle

In 2025, Windows 10’s decade-long reign will come to an end as it reaches its end of life. Two years after its successor has been released, Windows 10 continues to have a higher market share according to sites like StatCounter. This is due to various factors that I plan to write about later. What I want to talk about today is Microsoft’s reported plan to move to a 3-year-development cycle for Windows and the pros and cons of this change.

History of Windows Releases

From 2007- 2015 Microsoft released a new version of Windows about every 3 years. The exception to this rule is Windows 7 which was released 2 years after Vista. These releases, in order, include Windows Vista, 7, 8, and 10. There is an AB pattern of positive and negative reception with these releases. While technically better than its predecessor, Windows Vista received flak for being slower and requiring more advanced hardware. Windows 7 was beloved by all. Windows 8 was a flop. Windows 10 was advertised as the last version of Windows and the world rejoiced. 2021 brought Windows 11, the version of Windows after the last version of Windows which is slowly infecting more and more devices.

Assessing this change

When considering the pros and cons of this change it’s important to note that the historical information at hand does not necessarily reflect the future. With AI innovations, new upgrade procedures, and a more experienced audience the outcome could be unlike anything we have seen before. There is also nothing concrete available to make inferences upon regarding upcoming versions of Windows. Specific features, upgrade paths, and hardware requirements could have an impact on reception and performance.

Benefits

Since I believe myself to be a bit cynical when talking about change, I’ll start off with the potential benefits. A new version of Windows doesn’t mean what it used to. In the past, it meant having to spend $100+ for a new license so your OS didn’t become a playground for malicious actors. Today upgrades are free and allow users access to new features and continued security updates. Having a completely new OS also allows the beautiful people at Microsoft to redesign the entire system with a new interface or set of features in mind. A new taskbar, better AI integration, and a user-friendly control panel are all suddenly much more within reach. These factors have never been more important with the sudden rise of generative AI and the public’s growing lust for it. Copilot features can be kept in mind while developing the system instead of just tacked on like you would have to do for Windows 11.

This could be an opportunity for Windows updates to be more like iOS/macOS/Android with less emphasis on the number and an emphasis on added features and UI changes. Although this would mean new versions would have to be up to snuff with the previous one. There has been speculation that Microsoft could be making this change because they are behind macOS which is currently on version 13.

Cons

An upgrade may cost more than what would have been the price of a license. Many users were disappointed that they could not upgrade to Windows 11 because of the limited CPU support or required TPM chip. Consumers might find themselves forced to upgrade their hardware sooner than expected, leading to lighter wallets and increased e-waste.

New versions of Windows are traditionally unrefined and require time on the market to work out kinks and get features that existed in previous releases. Windows 11 didn’t let users group apps together in the start menu until about a year after its release and still doesn’t have options to move the taskbar. UI changes can also be a pain for users, forcing them to relearn workflows they had grown accustomed to. File Explorer got a huge design overhaul in Windows 11 and I’m not afraid to admit I initially found the modern look a bit confusing.

While I don’t believe Microsoft wants to make a disliked version of Windows, the AB pattern of them doing so is undeniable. Repeated failure can be harmful to the brand and motivate consumers to switch to Chrome/Mac OS.

Conclusions

I’m not an expert on product development. I don’t have many metrics to look at, focus group data, or years of experience in the field to say that this decision is the right or wrong one. The best I can do is look at historical patterns, pair that with where I see the market heading, and make assumptions based on that information. I believe that a 3-year development cycle is the correct choice because of the flexibility that will allow for the swift adoption of new technology. I also believe that adopting an upgrade mentality like iOS/macOS/Android could bring added value to the ecosystem.

I love talking about Windows and hope to write more about Windows 8-11 down the line. There is so much to discuss about the marketing and UI/UX surrounding those releases. I even had to make a schedule to space out Windows discussions because this could very easily become my Windows blog.